Methodology & Assumptions

The retirement-savings calculator

The free calculator on the homepage and at /calculator-app estimates what a household could keep per year, and over a chosen number of years, by retiring in a given country instead of remaining in the US. It works like this:

1. It starts from your household income and applies a planning assumption of 35% of income as a representative US cost-of-living-and-tax baseline, plus a US healthcare estimate (below).
2. It applies a per-country cost multiplier (roughly 0.5-0.65, i.e. the model assumes typical day-to-day living costs abroad run 50-65% of the US baseline, depending on the country selected) to estimate what the same household would spend abroad.
3. The difference is the estimated annual amount kept, multiplied by the number of years you set for the lifetime figure.

This 35% and the per-country multipliers are The Expat Math's own planning assumptions, not a published third-party statistic — they are a simplified stand-in for the mix of housing, taxes, food, transport and discretionary spending that varies enormously by household. They are directional, not a personalized budget. Your actual mix of US taxes, state of residence, filing status, and spending habits will change your real result, sometimes substantially.

Healthcare cost assumptions

US baseline ($28,000/year per couple, ages 60-64, pre-Medicare): built from KFF's 2025 Employer Health Benefits Survey average family premium ($26,993/year, published Oct 2025) applied to the Department of Labor's COBRA continuation rule (up to 102% of the full premium) — roughly $27,500/year, rounded. This approximates continuing employer coverage after leaving a job; it is not the only possible scenario. Unsubsidized ACA marketplace premiums for two people aged 60-64 can run considerably higher — roughly $26,000 to $42,000/year in premium alone, before deductibles or out-of-pocket costs, per ValuePenguin's analysis of CMS public-use rate files (2026 rates) and the Urban Institute (Sept 2024).

Higher-utilization estimate ($50,000/year): for the calculator's “ongoing care needs” toggle. Under the ACA's community-rating rule, an insurer cannot legally charge a higher premium because of a pre-existing condition on marketplace plans (HealthCare.gov; KFF) — so this figure is not a premium markup. It reflects the premium range above plus realistic additional out-of-pocket spending for a household likely to use more care in a year, bounded by the federal out-of-pocket maximum (up to roughly $21,200/family in 2026, per CMS's cost-sharing parameters). Both $28,000 and $50,000 are Expat Math planning estimates, not published statistics for this exact population — no third-party source publishes a single number for “a couple aged 60-65 without employer coverage.”

Portugal private insurance (roughly €250-380/month for a couple in their 60s): no Portuguese insurer publishes a public age-banded rate card. Two independent, named, dated sources converge on this range: BPA Property, “A Full Guide to Private Health Insurance in the Algarve” (published June 24, 2025 — cites roughly €270/month with Médis) and International Living, “Healthcare and Medical Care Costs in Portugal” (updated January 3, 2024 — cites roughly €300/month for high-end coverage). We do not present this figure side-by-side against the US figures above as an equivalent comparison: Portugal's private premium sits on top of a free/low-cost public system (SNS) that residents can also access, while the US figures represent the entire cost of coverage. The two are not the same kind of number.

Social Security & survey statistics

Social Security claiming-age rule

Social Security calculates your monthly benefit based on the age you claim, from 62 to 70. Claiming before your full retirement age (66-67, depending on birth year) permanently reduces your monthly benefit; delaying past full retirement age increases it by about 8% per year, up to age 70. Source: SSA, “Benefits Planner: Retirement — Early or Late Retirement?” and “Delayed Retirement Credits” (ssa.gov), independently corroborated by Congressional Research Service report R47151 (June 2022). This is a stable structural rule that applies the same way every year — not a limited-time offer, and not specific to retiring abroad.

Medicare Part B late-enrollment rule

If you're eligible for Medicare Part B and don't enroll — and don't qualify for a Special Enrollment Period, most commonly active coverage through a current employer's group health plan (yours or a working spouse's) — your premium can permanently increase by roughly 10% for each full 12-month period you were eligible but didn't enroll. Source: Medicare.gov, “Avoid late enrollment penalties,” corroborated by KFF (Sept 2025). Living abroad in retirement does not, by itself, exempt most people from this rule — simply having private foreign insurance with no US employer coverage is not on Medicare's list of qualifying exceptions. Narrower exceptions exist for long-term international volunteers with a tax-exempt nonprofit, and for people with fewer than 40 quarters of Medicare-taxed work. This is general information about a federal rule, not an assessment of your specific situation.

Currency, inflation & what the model excludes

The calculator uses today's dollar figures throughout. It does not project inflation, currency-exchange fluctuation, or Social Security cost-of-living adjustments over your retirement horizon — a result shown for “20 years” is 20 times a single year's estimated gap, not a year-by-year forecast. It also does not model: your specific federal or state tax bracket and filing status; a specific visa's income or asset requirements; underwriting or exclusions on any specific insurance policy; or changes in any country's tax law after this page's last-reviewed date. Country- specific figures shown elsewhere on the site (visa income thresholds, local tax treatment, cost-of-living ranges) are tracked and periodically re-verified separately from this calculator's planning assumptions; where a country page cites a specific source, that citation governs over this page's general figures.

Every figure on this site is general information for planning purposes, not personalized financial, tax, legal, or immigration advice. See our Terms of Service for the full disclaimer.